With eight new members in the past two years and the departures of Oklahoma and Texas, no (existing) power conference has changed as much as the Big 12. One thing that shouldn’t change? The free-for-all that ensues in the league race, with perhaps the smallest gap between its best and worst teams of any league in the country.
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To help you keep up the weekly wackiness, we introduce the Big 12 Chaos Meter. Each week this season, we’ll highlight the good, the bad and the silly in the conference that is perpetually “open for business.”
Week 1’s Big 12 chaos meter: 1/5 🤯
This is as tame as it will get this year. The top four teams in the preseason poll — Utah, Kansas State, Kansas and Oklahoma State — enjoyed Week 1 blowout wins. Only two teams lost in nonconference play.
College Football Playoff picture
The Big 12 champion will likely get an automatic berth as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Will the league get more than one team in? A check-in on the race after Week 1:
📈Trending up: Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas, UCF
📉Trending down: West Virginia, Texas Tech
📝Work to do: Arizona, Colorado, TCU, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati
❌Eliminated: Houston
👀Keep an eye on: Iowa State, Arizona State
Week 2’s potential for chaos
Although we have yet to reach Big 12 play, 11 of the league’s teams are playing a power conference opponent, including two Big 12 teams playing each other in a nonconference game (yes, that’s correct). Let’s assess the Big 12’s top Week 2 matchups based on potential absurdity.
High chaos potential
Texas Tech at Washington State
This game has “Pac-12 After Dark” vibes written all over it. It’s the Mike Leach (RIP) Bowl, and the Cougars this week paid homage to the late Leach, who coached the two programs for a combined 18 years.
Next up: Texas Tech🏴☠️
gameweek poster 02, presented by @alaskaair pic.twitter.com/iSf7EOOgbC
— Washington State Football (@WSUCougarFB) September 3, 2024
The Red Raiders did a lot of talking this (and last) offseason, only to struggle early each time. Last year, they started 0-2. This year, they needed multiple goal-line stands to survive FCS Abilene Christian 52-51. Texas Tech gave up 615(!) offensive yards, the most any Power 4 defense yielded in Week 1.
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Now it visits the Palouse, where Wazzu showcased its skill position speed while dropping 70 points on Portland State. The Cougars had an FBS-high five plays of 50-plus yards last week. They weren’t exactly the ’85 Bears, either, allowing 449 yards and 30 points.
The over/under in this game, per BetMGM, is 65.5. Smash the over and enjoy the fireworks.
Chaos potential: 5/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
Colorado at Nebraska
Last year, Shedeur Sanders and the Buffaloes took exception to what they deemed “disrespect” from Nebraska coach Matt Rhule. Deion Sanders called the matchup “personal.” The Colorado coach is striking a different tone this time, praising Rhule this week, but the intensity should persist between these former Big Eight foes.
Can Colorado better protect Shedeur? Last week represented a mild improvement, but it still wasn’t great: Sanders was pressured on 30.8 percent of his dropbacks against North Dakota State (98th in the FBS), compared to 36.7 percent last year, according to Pro Football Focus. But when Sanders scrambles, that’s when the magic — or disaster — happens. An upset of the improved Cornhuskers could put the Big 12 on alert.
Chaos potential: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯
No. 17 Kansas State at Tulane
When Kansas State won the Big 12 in 2022, the Wildcats started the season 5-1. The one loss was at home to Tulane (which went on to win the AAC title). K-State must travel to New Orleans this time, and the Green Wave are AAC title contenders again under new coach Jon Sumrall.
The Wildcats had a slow start offensively last week against UT Martin but were dominant defensively and committed zero penalties. Could K-State stub its toe here and still make the Playoff with a repeat of its 2022 run? Sure, but it’s not advisable, especially with Arizona visiting the Little Apple in a week.
Tulane is one of only 13 teams in the Group of 5 to beat multiple power conference opponents in the past five years.
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Chaos potential: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯
Baylor at No. 11 Utah
Yes, these are two Big 12 teams. No, this is not a Big 12 conference game. It’s the return game of a series between the two that began when Utah was still in the Pac-12 (the Utes beat Baylor 20-13 in Waco last year).
It’s still a good measuring stick. Utah, the league favorite, has won 32 of its last 34 home games.Baylor was awful last year but made multiple staff changes and became more aggressive in the transfer portal to level up. Head coach Dave Aranda is calling the defense for the first time since he was LSU’s defensive coordinator. He said he was “angry a lot of times” doing it last week and likened it to being a fighter pilot. The Bears held Tarleton State to 3 points.
What if Aranda gets really angry Saturday?
Dave Aranda with an all-time quote tonight about his experience calling plays again.
"I was angry a lot…It's like you're a fighter pilot and you've got this jet but there's people that want to kill you. You get to fly it, but you don't want to die. I feel that all the time." pic.twitter.com/fJCfDsEIMA
— Eric Kelly (@EricKellyTV) September 1, 2024
Chaos potential: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯
Medium chaos potential
Arkansas at No. 16 Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy and Bobby Petrino on opposite sidelines. One coach on the hot seat (Sam Pittman) who needs all the wins he can get. A quarterback who will soon be eligible for retirement benefits (Oklahoma State’s Alan Bowman). A Heisman Trophy contender (Ollie Gordon II). SEC versus Big 12. What more can you ask for?
This is more a must-win for the Hogs, but the way Oklahoma State wins or loses will be telling. Of note: Arkansas has started 2-0 for three straight seasons under Pittman.
Chaos potential: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Mississippi State at Arizona State
Looking for a Big 12 spoiler? Arizona State might be the one. The team picked to finish last in the league thrashed Wyoming 48-7 in a game the Sun Devils entered as 6.5-point favorites. Coach Kenny Dillingham is trying to block out complacency, blasting his team’s effort at practice.
“Our kids thought they won the Super Bowl on Saturday,” Dillingham told local reporters this week. “They came out here acting like we’re (an) undefeated, good football team, but we practiced like a 1-11 team today.” He later added: “We haven’t done anything. … We’re still a nobody.”
Kenny Dillingham on ASU's subpar performance in its first practice since the 48-7 win over Wyoming:
"We're still a nobody." pic.twitter.com/z9gdjkXIYj
— SunDevilSource.com (@SunDevilSource) September 3, 2024
If the Sun Devils upend an SEC team, they won’t be “a nobody” for much longer.
Chaos potential: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Iowa State at No. 21 Iowa
Iowa has won eight of the past 10 in the Cy-Hawk Series, but the Cyclones won in their last trip to Kinnick Stadium in 2022 and four of their past five away from home against all opponents. The Hawkeyes might have an offense; they opened the season by scoring 40 in a win over Illinois State. Iowa State entered the season as a Big 12 title contender; a win here would validate that status.
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Chaos potential: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Low chaos potential
Sam Houston at UCF
The talent differential here makes an upset unlikely. No FBS team ran for more yards last week than the Knights, who tallied 454 (the most by any Power 4 team since 2022). But Sam Houston has a respectable defensive front and notched an eye-opening 20-point road upset over Rice last week.
Chaos potential: 2/5 🤯🤯
No. 19 Kansas at Illinois
Jalon Daniels looks healthy, Devin Neal is cruising and the Kansas offense is humming. This is not a gimme for the Jayhawks (they’re 5.5-point favorites), but it’s not a disaster if they stumble.
Chaos potential: 2/5 🤯🤯
BYU at SMU
A classic Big 12-ACC matchup here. SMU survived a Week 0 scare at Nevada. Meanwhile, BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff is intent on proving he’s not the worst starting quarterback in the Big 12, as PFF asserted last month.
Jake Retzlaff holding up the PFF rankings that have him as the worst starting QB in the Big 12 https://t.co/SHmC7qDwI2 pic.twitter.com/geihKnR8sF
— Robby McCombs (@rtmccombs) September 1, 2024
Chaos potential: 2/5 🤯🤯
Pitt at Cincinnati
The Bearcats show promise offensively but need better run defense. They beat Pitt last year but then lost eight in a row and nine of the last 10. Bring back the Paddlewheel Trophy!
Chaos potential: 2/5 🤯🤯
Houston at No. 15 Oklahoma
The Cougars have the inside track on last place after getting dominated at home by UNLV. How many points will OU quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Sooners score on them?
Chaos potential: 1/5 🤯
The snoozers
Games against FCS opponents or that otherwise are expected to be blowouts:
•Albany at West Virginia
• Long Island at TCU
• Northern Arizona at No. 20 Arizona
(Photo of Matt Rhule and Deion Sanders: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)
Sam Khan Jr. is a senior writer for The Athletic covering college football and recruiting primarily in Texas. Previously, he spent eight years covering college sports at ESPN.com and seven years as a sports reporter at the Houston Chronicle. A native Houstonian, Sam graduated from the University of Houston. Follow Sam on Twitter @skhanjr
